Solar Set to Surpass Coal in China, But There’s a Catch

Andrew Topf

With over two decades of journalistic experience working in newspapers, trade publications and as a mining reporter, Andrew Topf is a seasoned writer specializing in…

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By Andrew Topf – Feb 06, 2026, 4:00 PM CST

China is set to see solar capacity overtake coal for the first time this year, with wind and solar expected to make up about half of total installed power capacity by end-2026.
Despite rapid renewables growth, additions are slowing after a shift to market-based pricing, and Rystad Energy forecasts China will drive a global decline in new solar capacity in 2026 even as renewables overtake coal in total power generation.
Coal is far from phased out: Carbon Brief reports a record surge in new coal plant proposals, risking long-term coal lock-in even as many existing plants run at low utilization.

China’s solar generating capacity is poised to exceed coal for the time this year, the China Electricity Council said in a report this week.

The country, long dependent on coal, should get about half of its installed generating capacity from solar and wind by the end of 2026, whereas coal’s use is expected to fall to about one-third of the total.

More specifically, the electricity council puts total coal capacity at about 1,333 gigawatts by Dec. 31. Solar ended 2025 at 1,200 GW and has averaged 270 GW of growth each year for the past three years.

The Los Angeles Times reports the country is expected to build out more than 400 GW of new generation in 2026 to keep up with electricity demand, with most of the new capacity to come from wind and solar, which combined would account for about 300 GW.

These figures seem to indicate that China is transitioning away from coal. But that would be a wrong assumption. The first number to look at is the 300 GW of renewables. It is smaller than last year, when solar alone accounted for 315 gigawatts of new capacity in China.

The reason has to do with a change to China’s power regulatory regime. Local developers wanted to get their projects operational before the change came into effect last June 1. After that date, the country shifted its renewable energy pricing from government-set feed-in tariffs to a market-based auction system. The idea was that by forcing new wind and solar projects to compete in the power market, it would encourage efficiency and lower prices.

According to Rystad Energy, in 2026 China is forecast to commission 235 GW of solar and 98 GW of wind capacity, reducing global renewable power generation capacity from 703 GW in 2025 to 650 GW in 2026.

In other words, China will be largely responsible for the forecast reduction in new global solar capacity, which reached a record 703 GW in 2025, largely driven by new solar capacity coming online in China during the first half of the year.

However, total renewable sources, not just solar, are expected to reach 11,900 terawatt-hours in 2026, overtaking coal as the largest source of power generation — a position it has held for decades.

Again, quoting Rystad Energy, coal contributed to almost 40% of the energy mix in 2000, and given that practically all the new demand is being met with renewable sources, coal generation has plateaued.

Here comes the catch. This week Carbon Brief reported that proposals to build coal-fired power plants in China reached a record high in China.

The report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor says that in 2025, developers submitted new or reactivated proposals to build a total of 161 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power plants.

The new proposals come even as China’s buildout of renewable energy pushed down coal-power generation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2025, meaning many coal plants are already running at just half of their maximum capacity.

The co-authors argue that while clean-energy growth may limit emissions from coal power in the short term, the surge in proposals could lock in new coal assets, “weaken…incentives” for power-system reform and help keep coal capacity online in spite of China’s climate goals.

According to Carbon Brief, the country is continuing to add significant coal-power capacity, with a record 95 GW added to the grid last year and another 291 GW in the pipeline.

Around two-thirds of coal-powered capacity proposed in China since 2014 has either been commissioned or is set to be built.

This is the reverse of what is happening outside of China, where roughly two-thirds of proposed coal capacity never makes it to construction.

Coal may be down in China, but it’s not yet out.

By Andrew Topf for Oilprice.com

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